Free market report · Data to July 2026
Mornington Peninsula property market
Mornington Peninsula is one of the 453 council areas we track on the Momentum Dial, our property clock. This page is the plain-numbers read: where it sits in the cycle, who lives there, what's being built, and the suburbs inside it.
Mornington Peninsula is home to 172,217 people. On the Buyers First Momentum Dial its house market currently reads Rising, and units read the same. Worth knowing up front: this is one of the most socio-economically advantaged councils in the country, which shows up in its prices. Here's the rest of the picture, in plain numbers.
Houses · cycle position
Rising
The Mornington Peninsula house market is accelerating. Growth is building pace rather than fading, which is the phase most investors wish they had caught in hindsight.
-5% to +11%
Modelled 12-month price range
+3.8%
Modelled 12-month rent change
Units · cycle position
Rising
The unit market is accelerating. Growth is building pace rather than fading, which is the phase most investors wish they had caught in hindsight.
-5% to +11%
Modelled 12-month price range
+2.5%
Modelled 12-month rent change
At a glance · houses
$1,295,134
Typical house, August 2026
+5.5% a year since 2010
+5.2%
Growth a year, last 10 years
0.0% a year over the last 5
$674
Rent a week
2.7% gross yield
3 of 15
Years prices fell since 2010
Worst: 2023, -4%
The clock measures growth momentum, not price. Peak means growing fastest, not about to fall. Cycle data and projections sourced from HtAG Analytics. See Mornington Peninsula on the clock.
Free · One per person
Want all of this written up for Mornington Peninsula?
The full report is this data as a written document, plus the current price, rent, yield and growth on one suburb inside Mornington Peninsula, and the numbers that cut against the area. I write them by hand, so it comes from me rather than out of a system.
The numbers, explained
Mornington Peninsula in charts.
The typical house in Mornington Peninsula went from $536,479 in 2010 to $1,295,134 in August 2026. That is +141% in total, +5.5% a year. 3 down years out of 15, never more than 2 in a row. Cycles, not collapses.
Houses · price change each year · 2011 to 2026
Prices in Mornington Peninsula fell in 3 of the last 15 years
+141%
Since 2010
+5.2%
Per year, last 10 years
3 of 15
Years going backwards
-4.2%
Worst year (2023)
What this shows. How much the typical house price in Mornington Peninsula went up or down each year. Teal bars are up years, red bars are down years, and the faded bar is this year so far.
Why it matters. The size of a good year matters less than how many bad years there were and whether they came in a row. Boring? Absolutely. But the length of the down stretch is what decides whether you get out the other side. Typical price at December each year, data from HtAG Analytics.
You don't need to know property to read this. Every chart below opens with the point in one line, then says what it shows and why we care. Teal is a good sign, amber is okay, red means watch it.
The scorecard · 7 things we check
Mornington Peninsula scores 21 out of 35. Mixed.
prices are rising and speeding up
3 of 15 years
1.1 new homes approved per 100 that exist
population growing 0.2% a year
3.3% unemployed, Australia 4.2%
a house costs 13.5 years of a local household's income
1.5% of rentals are empty, so about 2 in every 100
What this shows. Seven quick checks on Mornington Peninsula, each scored out of five. Five is the reading we most want to see.
Why it matters. No single number tells you whether an area is a good buy. Together they show whether the pieces line up. These are bands, not rules: a council outside a band can still be the right buy for the right person, and one inside every band can still be wrong for you.
House prices since 2010 · Mornington Peninsula vs the 5 most similar councils in VIC
Mornington Peninsula has outgrown similar councils over ten years
0.0% vs +2.2%
A year, last 5 years
+5.2% vs +3.7%
A year, last 10 years
+5.2% vs +4.4%
A year, last 15 years
What this shows. The typical house price in Mornington Peninsula every year, in teal, next to the middle of the five councils in VIC closest to it in size and starting price: Greater Dandenong, Kingston, Knox, Glen Eira, Darebin. The small "vs" number in each tile is those councils.
Why it matters. Beating its peers over a whole decade is worth more than any single hot year. It usually means something real is pulling people here.
Momentum · the last 36 months
Prices in Mornington Peninsula are moving at a steady pace
$1,291,828
3-month price, August 2026
+1.0%
3-month price vs 12-month price
3,618 vs 4,403
Houses sold, last 12 months vs the 12 before
What this shows. Two versions of the same price. The dotted teal line averages the last three months, so it reacts fast. The grey line averages the last twelve, so it moves slowly. The bars are how many houses sold each month.
Why it matters. The three-month and twelve-month prices are moving together. No acceleration either way.
New homes · approvals as a share of all the homes here
Not many new homes are being built in Mornington Peninsula
What this shows. For every 100 homes already in Mornington Peninsula, how many new ones the council approved each year. The teal band is the range we call balanced.
Why it matters. Fewer new homes means the ones that exist stay in demand. It can also mean building here is hard or slow, which cuts the same way. The home count is the population divided by the average household size, so treat the rate as a guide rather than a census.
Affordability · house price in years of local household income
A house in Mornington Peninsula costs 13.5 years of a local family's income
What this shows. Take the typical house price and divide it by what a typical household here earns in a year. A bar of 7 means seven years of the whole household's income buys one house.
Why it matters. Expensive for the people who live here. Prices at this level need outside buyers to keep moving, and outside buyers are the first to leave when things wobble. Income is the 2021 Census figure carried forward at 3.5% a year, so it is an estimate, not a measurement.
Rents · typical weekly house rent, last 36 months · and how many rentals sit empty
Rent in Mornington Peninsula is $674 a week, up 2.7% in a year
$674
A week, August 2026
+2.7%
Change in the last year
1.5%
Rentals sitting empty (balanced)
What this shows. What a typical house in Mornington Peninsula rents for each week, month by month. The empty-rentals number is the share of rental homes with nobody in them: under 1.5% is tight, over 3% means tenants have plenty of choice.
Why it matters. Rents are moving with inflation. Steady rather than tight.
Rental yield · a year of rent as a share of the price, Mornington Peninsula vs similar councils
Rent covers 2.7% of the price each year in Mornington Peninsula
What this shows. Yield is simple: a whole year of rent divided by the house price. A $500,000 house renting for $500 a week earns $26,000 a year, which is a 5.2% yield.
Why it matters. Lower than similar councils, which are around 3.1%. Prices have run ahead of rents, so you are paying more of the loan yourself while you wait for growth. We don't buy on yield alone and we never set a yield cut-off; it is one piece of the picture, next to growth.
The people
Who lives in Mornington Peninsula.
Population growth has been close to flat over the last five years, +0.2% a year. Overseas migration is doing the heavy lifting, 3,483 people on net over the last three years. The median age is 48 and the median household brings in $1,555 a week (Census 2021). 77% of households own or are paying off their home. Owner-occupier markets like this tend to hold their nerve through the cycle, because nobody is forced to sell an address they live at.
Population · ABS estimates 2015 to 2025
Mornington Peninsula has stopped growing: 172,217 people, +0.2% a year
172,217
People, 2025
+0.2% vs +0.6%
A year, last 5 years · typical VIC council
+0.8%
A year, last 10 years
Why it matters. With few new arrivals, demand here comes from locals moving house, not from growth. Prices can still rise, but they lean on other drivers.
Where the growth came from · last 3 years
Overseas arrivals are doing the heavy lifting in Mornington Peninsula: 3,483 in three years
Net change: +2,684 people over three years.
What this shows. Three ways a place gains or loses people: babies born minus people who died, people who moved here from another part of Australia, and people who arrived from overseas. Bars to the right add people, bars to the left take them away.
Why it matters. Overseas arrivals usually rent first, so this kind of growth shows up in rents before it shows up in prices.
Age and households · Census 2021
Mornington Peninsula is older than the typical VIC council: median age 48 vs 42
Mornington Peninsula Typical VIC council (middle of 78)
Why it matters. An older area leans on retirees and downsizers. Single-level homes near health services do best, and turnover tends to be lower.
Income and who owns the homes · Census 2021
Most homes in Mornington Peninsula are owner-occupied: 77% own or are paying off, 19% rent
Own or paying off Renting Other
Why it matters. Owner-occupier markets hold their nerve through the cycle, because nobody is forced to sell the address they live at.
New supply
What's being approved to build.
782 dwellings were approved in FY26, 490 of them houses. Approvals have been roughly steady year to year. On the non-residential side, $234 million of building was approved in FY26, $50 million of it public money. Governments build where they expect people. Within that, $191 million of education and health buildings have been approved across the last three financial years. Schools and hospitals are the most honest signal governments give about where they expect families.
Homes approved · ABS, by financial year
Not much new is being built in Mornington Peninsula: 782 homes approved in FY26
Houses Units, townhouses and other
782
Homes approved, FY26
63%
Of them houses
1.1%
New homes per 100 that exist
What this shows. How many new homes the council approved each financial year, split into houses and everything else. Approved is not built, but it is the earliest warning of supply on the way.
Why it matters. When little gets built, the homes already here do not have much competition. Good for prices, as long as people keep arriving.
Non-residential building approved · ABS
Government building spend in Mornington Peninsula has eased: $50m approved in FY26
Government projects All non-residential
$234m
All sectors, FY26
$50m
Government, FY26
$191m
Schools and health, last 3 years
What this shows. The dollar value of shops, offices, schools, hospitals and other non-home buildings approved each year. The darker bar is the government's share.
Why it matters. Governments build where they expect people. Schools and hospitals are the most honest signal they give about where families are heading. For the named projects behind these numbers, ask for the full report.
Jobs
Who's working in Mornington Peninsula.
Work here runs on construction (14% of jobs), ahead of health care and social assistance and retail trade. 4,324 more residents are in work than five years ago (+5.5%). Unemployment sits at 3.3%, comfortably under the national 4.2%. On the ABS advantage index this council ranks in the top 20% of the country, which you'll notice in the price tags.
Jobs · SALM, March 2026
4,324 more people in Mornington Peninsula have a job than five years ago
83,073
Residents in work
3.3% vs 4.2%
Unemployed · Australia
+5.5%
Jobs change, 5 years
Mornington Peninsula Australia
Why it matters. Strong jobs growth shows up in housing demand with a lag. People get the job first and buy the house a year or two later.
Who employs people here · Census 2021
Construction is the biggest employer in Mornington Peninsula, 14% of jobs
What this shows. The five industries that employ the most residents, as a share of all jobs. The pill is the ABS advantage score: Mornington Peninsula sits in decile 9 of 10 nationally, where 10 is the most advantaged.
Why it matters. A spread of employers means no single closure can empty the town. That is the kind of job base that holds house prices through a downturn.
The outlook
Is Mornington Peninsula worth buying into?
Put the drivers together and the case for Mornington Peninsula is: net internal migration in its favour, a job base that has expanded. None of this guarantees anything. It tells you where to look harder, which is what a report like this is for.
Free · Written by hand · One per person
This page is the public data. The full report is that written up as a document, plus the current price, rent, yield and growth on one suburb inside Mornington Peninsula. One per person.
Name, email and phone. I write these by hand, one per person, and the conversation afterwards is the only thing the report costs.
Inside the LGA
The suburbs of Mornington Peninsula.
We hold live snapshot data for one suburb in Mornington Peninsula. Click through for the full numbers.
| Suburb | Typical price | Rent/wk | Gross yield | 1yr growth | Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hastings | $722,746 | $564 | 4.1% | +6% | REA · Domain |
Next step. See what's for sale in Hastings on realestate.com.au or Domain. Then send me the address before you make an offer. That is the part the data cannot do.
All 39 suburbs and localities in Mornington Peninsula
Arthurs Seat · Balnarring · Balnarring Beach · Baxter · Bittern · Blairgowrie · Boneo · Cape Schanck · Capel Sound · Crib Point · Dromana · Fingal · Flinders · Hastings · Hmas Cerberus · Main Ridge · McCrae · Merricks · Merricks Beach · Merricks North · Moorooduc · Mornington · Mount Eliza · Mount Martha · Point Leo · Portsea · Red Hill · Red Hill South · Rosebud · Rye · Safety Beach · Shoreham · Somers · Somerville · Sorrento · St Andrews Beach · Tootgarook · Tuerong · Tyabb
Written up suburb by suburb in Mornington Peninsula: Blairgowrie
Free · Written by hand · One per person
Want the full workup on Mornington Peninsula?
This page is the public data. The full report is the written workup: current price, rent, gross yield and vacancy, growth over 1, 3, 5 and 10 years, days on market and demand, and the supply coming down the pipe, for Mornington Peninsula or any suburb in it. Same data we run for clients. I pull it and email it through, usually within a business day. One per person, no charge, and no 14-part email sequence afterwards. All I ask is that if it lands, you take the fifteen minute call at the end of it.
Name, email and phone. I write these by hand, one per person, and the conversation afterwards is the only thing the report costs.
Keep comparing
Markets of a similar size in VIC.
A council only makes sense in context. These are the VIC markets closest to Mornington Peninsula in population, each with its own written report.
General information only, not financial or investment advice. Cycle positions and projections are modelled LGA-level figures to July 2026, sourced from HtAG Analytics. Population and approvals are ABS estimates; employment is SALM smoothed data; income, age and tenure are Census 2021. None of it can see street quality, flood maps, zoning or the contract, which is where deals are actually won and lost. Get advice on your own situation before acting.
Data finds the area. It doesn't buy the house.
We narrow 15,000 suburbs to the top 5 for each client, then find the street and the property. If Mornington Peninsula is on your list, that's a conversation worth having early.