Free market report · Data to July 2026
The Hills Shire property market
The Hills Shire is one of the 453 council areas we track on the Momentum Dial, our property clock. This page is the plain-numbers read: where it sits in the cycle, who lives there, what's being built, and the suburbs inside it.
The Hills Shire is home to 222,675 people. On the Buyers First Momentum Dial its house market currently reads Slowing, while units read in a growth pause. Same council, different clocks, which is exactly why we track them separately. The number that matters most here: population is compounding at +3.6% a year. People arriving is the rawest form of housing demand. Here's the rest of the picture, in plain numbers.
Houses · cycle position
Slowing
The The Hills Shire house market is still growing, but the pace has come off its fastest point. Slowing markets often keep rising for years, just less quickly.
-8% to +15%
Modelled 12-month price range
+1.5%
Modelled 12-month rent change
Units · cycle position
Growth pause
The unit market is in a growth pause. Prices are holding but momentum has flattened out, which is where patient buyers start paying attention.
-2% to +7%
Modelled 12-month price range
+3.4%
Modelled 12-month rent change
At a glance · houses
$2,068,379
Typical house, August 2026
+6.0% a year since 2010
+5.4%
Growth a year, last 10 years
+5.3% a year over the last 5
$791
Rent a week
2.0% gross yield
5 of 15
Years prices fell since 2010
Worst: 2011, -2%
The clock measures growth momentum, not price. Peak means growing fastest, not about to fall. Cycle data and projections sourced from HtAG Analytics. See The Hills Shire on the clock.
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Want all of this written up for The Hills Shire?
The full report is this data as a written document, plus the current price, rent, yield and growth on one suburb inside The Hills Shire, and the numbers that cut against the area. I write them by hand, so it comes from me rather than out of a system.
The numbers, explained
The Hills Shire in charts.
The typical house in The Hills Shire went from $789,628 in 2010 to $2,068,379 in August 2026. That is +162% in total, +6.0% a year. 5 down years out of 15, never more than 2 in a row. Cycles, not collapses.
Houses · price change each year · 2011 to 2026
Prices in The Hills Shire fell in 5 of the last 15 years
+162%
Since 2010
+5.4%
Per year, last 10 years
5 of 15
Years going backwards
-2.2%
Worst year (2011)
What this shows. How much the typical house price in The Hills Shire went up or down each year. Teal bars are up years, red bars are down years, and the faded bar is this year so far.
Why it matters. The size of a good year matters less than how many bad years there were and whether they came in a row. Boring? Absolutely. But the length of the down stretch is what decides whether you get out the other side. Typical price at December each year, data from HtAG Analytics.
You don't need to know property to read this. Every chart below opens with the point in one line, then says what it shows and why we care. Teal is a good sign, amber is okay, red means watch it.
The scorecard · 7 things we check
The Hills Shire scores 20 out of 35. Mixed.
prices are still rising but more slowly
5 of 15 years
3.8 new homes approved per 100 that exist
population growing 3.6% a year
3.1% unemployed, Australia 4.2%
a house costs 11.8 years of a local household's income
2.8% of rentals are empty, so about 3 in every 100
What this shows. Seven quick checks on The Hills Shire, each scored out of five. Five is the reading we most want to see.
Why it matters. No single number tells you whether an area is a good buy. Together they show whether the pieces line up. These are bands, not rules: a council outside a band can still be the right buy for the right person, and one inside every band can still be wrong for you.
House prices since 2010 · The Hills Shire vs the 5 most similar councils in NSW
The Hills Shire has outgrown similar councils over ten years
+5.3% vs +6.0%
A year, last 5 years
+5.4% vs +4.8%
A year, last 10 years
+6.5% vs +6.1%
A year, last 15 years
What this shows. The typical house price in The Hills Shire every year, in teal, next to the middle of the five councils in NSW closest to it in size and starting price: Wollongong, Fairfield, Sutherland Shire, Sydney, Inner West. The small "vs" number in each tile is those councils.
Why it matters. Beating its peers over a whole decade is worth more than any single hot year. It usually means something real is pulling people here.
Momentum · the last 36 months
Prices in The Hills Shire are picking up speed right now
$2,063,741
3-month price, August 2026
+1.5%
3-month price vs 12-month price
2,544 vs 3,385
Houses sold, last 12 months vs the 12 before
What this shows. Two versions of the same price. The dotted teal line averages the last three months, so it reacts fast. The grey line averages the last twelve, so it moves slowly. The bars are how many houses sold each month.
Why it matters. The last three months are running ahead of the last twelve. That is what speeding up looks like before it shows in the yearly number.
New homes · approvals as a share of all the homes here
A lot of new homes are being built in The Hills Shire
What this shows. For every 100 homes already in The Hills Shire, how many new ones the council approved each year. The teal band is the range we call balanced.
Why it matters. Lots of new homes competing with the ones already here. Too much supply is the one thing that turns a strong market into a soft one, so we watch this closely. The home count is the population divided by the average household size, so treat the rate as a guide rather than a census.
Affordability · house price in years of local household income
A house in The Hills Shire costs 11.8 years of a local family's income
What this shows. Take the typical house price and divide it by what a typical household here earns in a year. A bar of 7 means seven years of the whole household's income buys one house.
Why it matters. Expensive for the people who live here. Prices at this level need outside buyers to keep moving, and outside buyers are the first to leave when things wobble. Income is the 2021 Census figure carried forward at 3.5% a year, so it is an estimate, not a measurement.
Rents · typical weekly house rent, last 36 months · and how many rentals sit empty
Rent in The Hills Shire is $791 a week, up 4.2% in a year
$791
A week, August 2026
+4.2%
Change in the last year
2.8%
Rentals sitting empty (balanced)
What this shows. What a typical house in The Hills Shire rents for each week, month by month. The empty-rentals number is the share of rental homes with nobody in them: under 1.5% is tight, over 3% means tenants have plenty of choice.
Why it matters. Rents rising faster than inflation means more people want to live here than there are homes to rent. That pressure eventually shows up in prices.
Rental yield · a year of rent as a share of the price, The Hills Shire vs similar councils
Rent covers 2.0% of the price each year in The Hills Shire
What this shows. Yield is simple: a whole year of rent divided by the house price. A $500,000 house renting for $500 a week earns $26,000 a year, which is a 5.2% yield.
Why it matters. Lower than similar councils, which are around 2.5%. Prices have run ahead of rents, so you are paying more of the loan yourself while you wait for growth. We don't buy on yield alone and we never set a yield cut-off; it is one piece of the picture, next to growth.
The people
Who lives in The Hills Shire.
The population has grown +3.6% a year over the last five years, which is quick by national standards. The growth is mostly people moving in from elsewhere in Australia, 10,994 of them on net over the last three years. Internal migration is the strongest kind of housing demand, because those people chose here on purpose. The median age is 38 and the median household brings in $2,831 a week (Census 2021). 77% of households own or are paying off their home. Owner-occupier markets like this tend to hold their nerve through the cycle, because nobody is forced to sell an address they live at.
Population · ABS estimates 2015 to 2025
The Hills Shire is growing fast: 222,675 people, up +3.6% a year
222,675
People, 2025
+3.6% vs +0.6%
A year, last 5 years · typical NSW council
+3.4%
A year, last 10 years
Why it matters. People arriving is the rawest form of housing demand. Every new household needs somewhere to live before anything else happens.
Where the growth came from · last 3 years
Most new residents chose The Hills Shire on purpose: 10,994 moved in from elsewhere in Australia
Net change: +23,123 people over three years.
What this shows. Three ways a place gains or loses people: babies born minus people who died, people who moved here from another part of Australia, and people who arrived from overseas. Bars to the right add people, bars to the left take them away.
Why it matters. People who move here from another part of Australia are the strongest kind of demand. They compared it with somewhere else and picked here.
Age and households · Census 2021
The Hills Shire is younger than the typical NSW council: median age 38 vs 42
The Hills Shire Typical NSW council (middle of 122)
Why it matters. A younger area means first-home buyers, growing families and renters. Three-bedroom houses near schools and jobs are the bread and butter.
Income and who owns the homes · Census 2021
Most homes in The Hills Shire are owner-occupied: 77% own or are paying off, 20% rent
Own or paying off Renting Other
Why it matters. Owner-occupier markets hold their nerve through the cycle, because nobody is forced to sell the address they live at.
New supply
What's being approved to build.
2,696 dwellings were approved in FY26, 1,323 of them houses. Approvals have been roughly steady year to year. On the non-residential side, $493 million of building was approved in FY26, $61 million of it public money. Governments build where they expect people. Within that, $293 million of education and health buildings have been approved across the last three financial years. Schools and hospitals are the most honest signal governments give about where they expect families.
Homes approved · ABS, by financial year
A lot is being built in The Hills Shire: 2,696 homes approved in FY26
Houses Units, townhouses and other
2,696
Homes approved, FY26
49%
Of them houses
3.8%
New homes per 100 that exist
What this shows. How many new homes the council approved each financial year, split into houses and everything else. Approved is not built, but it is the earliest warning of supply on the way.
Why it matters. New homes compete with the ones already here. Too much supply is the one thing that turns a strong market soft, so this is the number we check first.
Non-residential building approved · ABS
Government spending on buildings in The Hills Shire is rising: $61m approved in FY26
Government projects All non-residential
$493m
All sectors, FY26
$61m
Government, FY26
$293m
Schools and health, last 3 years
What this shows. The dollar value of shops, offices, schools, hospitals and other non-home buildings approved each year. The darker bar is the government's share.
Why it matters. Governments build where they expect people. Schools and hospitals are the most honest signal they give about where families are heading. For the named projects behind these numbers, ask for the full report.
Jobs
Who's working in The Hills Shire.
Work here runs on health care and social assistance (13% of jobs), ahead of professional services and education and training. 22,963 more residents are in work than five years ago (+23.6%). That is strong jobs growth, and it usually shows up in housing demand with a lag. Unemployment sits at 3.1%, comfortably under the national 4.2%. On the ABS advantage index this council ranks in the top 10% of the country, which you'll notice in the price tags.
Jobs · SALM, March 2026
22,963 more people in The Hills Shire have a job than five years ago
120,071
Residents in work
3.1% vs 4.2%
Unemployed · Australia
+23.6%
Jobs change, 5 years
The Hills Shire Australia
Why it matters. Strong jobs growth shows up in housing demand with a lag. People get the job first and buy the house a year or two later.
Who employs people here · Census 2021
Health care and social assistance is the biggest employer in The Hills Shire, 13% of jobs
What this shows. The five industries that employ the most residents, as a share of all jobs. The pill is the ABS advantage score: The Hills Shire sits in decile 10 of 10 nationally, where 10 is the most advantaged.
Why it matters. A spread of employers means no single closure can empty the town. That is the kind of job base that holds house prices through a downturn.
The outlook
Is The Hills Shire worth buying into?
Put the drivers together and the case for The Hills Shire is: a population that keeps growing, net internal migration in its favour, a job base that has expanded. None of this guarantees anything. It tells you where to look harder, which is what a report like this is for.
Free · Written by hand · One per person
This page is the public data. The full report is that written up as a document, plus the current price, rent, yield and growth on one suburb inside The Hills Shire. One per person.
Name, email and phone. I write these by hand, one per person, and the conversation afterwards is the only thing the report costs.
Inside the LGA
The suburbs of The Hills Shire.
Next step. See what's for sale in Baulkham Hills on realestate.com.au or Domain. Then send me the address before you make an offer. That is the part the data cannot do.
All 20 suburbs and localities in The Hills Shire
Annangrove · Baulkham Hills · Beaumont Hills · Bella Vista · Box Hill · Castle Hill · Gables · Glenhaven · Glenorie · Kellyville · Kenthurst · Middle Dural · Nelson · North Kellyville · Norwest · Rouse Hill · Sackville North · South Maroota · West Pennant Hills · Wisemans Ferry
Free · Written by hand · One per person
Want the full workup on The Hills Shire?
This page is the public data. The full report is the written workup: current price, rent, gross yield and vacancy, growth over 1, 3, 5 and 10 years, days on market and demand, and the supply coming down the pipe, for The Hills Shire or any suburb in it. Same data we run for clients. I pull it and email it through, usually within a business day. One per person, no charge, and no 14-part email sequence afterwards. All I ask is that if it lands, you take the fifteen minute call at the end of it.
Name, email and phone. I write these by hand, one per person, and the conversation afterwards is the only thing the report costs.
Keep comparing
Markets of a similar size in NSW.
A council only makes sense in context. These are the NSW markets closest to The Hills Shire in population, each with its own written report.
General information only, not financial or investment advice. Cycle positions and projections are modelled LGA-level figures to July 2026, sourced from HtAG Analytics. Population and approvals are ABS estimates; employment is SALM smoothed data; income, age and tenure are Census 2021. None of it can see street quality, flood maps, zoning or the contract, which is where deals are actually won and lost. Get advice on your own situation before acting.
Data finds the area. It doesn't buy the house.
We narrow 15,000 suburbs to the top 5 for each client, then find the street and the property. If The Hills Shire is on your list, that's a conversation worth having early.